Impact of New Energy on Electricity Spot Market Price Formation

This report examines how new energy sources—photovoltaic, wind power, energy storage, and flexible load—affect the price formation mechanism of the electricity spot market, with a focus on the Guangdong market and comparisons with Shandong, Shanxi, and European markets. Key findings include: the zero marginal cost of new energy systematically lowers spot prices, with PV causing a stronger discount effect than wind due to its concentrated midday output; the PV 'duck curve' leads to midday price collapse and a widening peak-valley spread, with a load inflection point of 120,000 MW marking a shift in price elasticity; and wind power volatility introduces price uncertainty, with forecast errors translating into real-time price risks. The report also analyzes trading strategy implications for volume and price bidding, energy storage arbitrage, and virtual power plants, supported by scenario analysis and quantitative models. Recommendations are provided for energy storage operators, new energy stations, retail companies, and virtual power plants to optimize strategies amid these market dynamics.