Supply-Side Inflection Point: PV Industry Recovery in 2026

The photovoltaic industry is at a supply-side inflection point with supply and demand gradually recovering. Global PV installations continue to grow, reaching an estimated 599GW in 2025, though China's installations are expected to decline from a high base to 215GW in 2026. Overseas markets, particularly the Middle East and India, show strong growth. Anti-internal competition measures are taking effect, halting capacity expansion and leading to price recovery across segments like polysilicon, wafers, and modules. Corporate profitability remains under pressure, but utilization rates are expected to recover moderately. Leading companies are forming consortia for joint procurement and storage to address overcapacity. Technology advancements include TOPCon efficiency upgrades, BC capacity expansion, and perovskite GW-level lines. Key investment recommendations focus on high-prosperity sectors like inverters and trackers, supply-side reform beneficiaries such as polysilicon and module leaders, and new technology leaders in paste and perovskite. Risks include intensified competition, grid constraints, and policy changes.